Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog
Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation January 2012
3 Feb 2012 at 8:56am
 Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in January, net nonfarm payrolls increased with private nonfarm payrolls adding 257,000 jobs and the unemployment rate declining to 8.3% over the same period.
Net private sector jobs increased 0.23% since last month climbing 2.06% above the level seen a year ago but but remained a whopping 4.47% below the peak level of employment seen in December 2007.
 
       
Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure: January 2012
3 Feb 2012 at 8:49am
 Today's employment situation report showed that in January the full time unemployment rate declined to 8.8% of the civilian workforce but remains near the highest rate seen in 41 years.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers full time workers to be those 'who have expressed a desire to work full time (35 hours or more per week) or are on layoff from full-time jobs'.
Full time jobless workers currently account for roughly 88.5% of all unemployed workers.
 
  
Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration January 2012
3 Feb 2012 at 8:43am
 Be sure to bookmark the "Scary Unemployment Dashboard"... it's live.
Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed were mixed in January and remained epically distressed by historic standards.
Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 5.518 million or 42.9% of all unemployed workers while the median number of weeks unemployed increased to 21.1 weeks and the average stay on unemployment declined to 40.1 weeks, the highest level ever recorded.
Looking at the charts below (click for super interactive versions) you can see that today's sorry situation far exceeds even the conditions seen during the double-dip recessionary period of the early 1980s, long considered by economists to be the worst period of unemployment since the Great Depression.
 
  
On The Margin: Total Unemployment January 2012
3 Feb 2012 at 8:37am
 Today's Employment Situation report showed that in January 'total unemployment' including all marginally attached workers declined to 15.1% from the prior month's level of 15.2% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate also declined to 8.3%.
The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of 'unemployed' (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively 'on the margin' either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers 'marginally attached' workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be 'underutilized' labor.
The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.
To calculate the 'total' rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive 'unemployed' group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.
 
  
Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims Fe...
2 Feb 2012 at 8:04am
 Today's jobless claims report showed declines to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted continued to trend below the closely watched 400K level.
Seasonally adjusted 'initial' unemployment declined 12,000 to 367,000 claims from last week's revised 379,000 claims while seasonally adjusted 'continued' claims declined by 130,000 resulting in an 'insured' unemployment rate of 2.7%.
Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored 'extended' unemployment benefit programs (the 'extended benefits' and 'EUC 2008' from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.
Currently there are some 3.49 million people receiving federal 'extended' unemployment benefits.
Taken together with the latest 4.06 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 7.56 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.
 
  
Constuction Spending: December 2011
1 Feb 2012 at 11:40am
 Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing near-cycle low levels of spending in December for residential construction while indicating continued improvement for total non-residential spending.
On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending increased .077% from November and rose 5.29% above the level seen in November 2010 while remaining a whopping 63.34% below the peak level seen in 2006.
Single family construction spending increased 1.53% since November and rose 3.62% since December 2010 but remained a whopping 76.41% below it's peak in 2006.
Non-residential construction spending increased a whopping 3.26% since November climbing 11.89% above the level seen in December 2010 but remained a whopping 32.32% below the peak level reached in October 2008.
The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 ' 2005.
 
  
ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: January 2012
1 Feb 2012 at 11:32am
 Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity improved in January with assessments of most measures increasing.
At 54.1 the purchasing manager's composite index (PMI) increased 1.88% since December but remained 11.02% below the level seen a year earlier.
Respondents indicated that prices are generally stable and show an overall positive outlook for 2012:
"Still seeing raw materials pricing moving down in general, but expect inflation later in the quarter." (Chemical Products)
"Year starting a little slow, but customers are positive about increased business in 2012." (Machinery)
"Once again, business continues to be strong." (Paper Products)
"Pricing remains in check with the demand we are seeing. Supplier deliveries are on time or early." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
"The economy seems to be slowly improving." (Fabricated Metal Products)
"Business lost to offshore is coming back." (Computer & Electronic Products)
"Business remains strong. Order intake is great ' more than 20 percent above budget." (Primary Metals)
"Indications are that 2012 business environment will improve over 2011." (Transportation Equipment)
"Market conditions appear to be improving, with the outlook for 2012 better yet." (Wood Products
 
  
ADP National Employment Report: January 2012
1 Feb 2012 at 11:24am
 Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in January as private employers added 170,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 1.77% above the level seen in January 2011.
Looking at the chart (click for full-screen dynamic version) showing ADP's total private nonfarm payrolls since 2001 as well as the year-over-year and month-to-month percent change, you can see that while the job recovery had been anemic throughout most of 2010, more recently the trend had been picking up momentum.
Although the level of jobs is still far below the peak seen in late 2007 and still near the lows seen during the worst period of the "dot-com" recession, the bottom looks to be clearly defined and the trend is looking comparable to past recoveries.
Perusing the rest of the data in the ADP dataset you can see the the economy is currently showing the most growth for small to mid-sized service providing jobs with goods-producing jobs remaining near trough levels.
Look for Friday's BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show somewhat similar trends.
 
  
Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey ? February 01 2012
1 Feb 2012 at 11:16am
 The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 1 basis point to 4.03% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 1.7% and the refinance application declined 3.6% over the same period.
With rates trending ever lower, the economy seemingly near recession and the FOMC members becoming more dovish by the day, it will be interesting to see how far rates on the long end can decline. All things being equal, falling home prices, declining purchase applications and record low long lending rates all appear to indicate a deflationary for the macro-economy.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
 
  
S&P/Case-Shiller: November 2011
31 Jan 2012 at 12:20pm
 Note... be sure to bookmark the overall S&P/Case-Shiller Dashboard or the Scary Housing Dashboard of the weakest markets for a real-time view of all the markets tracked by S&P.
The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for November reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index declined 1.29% since October while the Composite-20 index declined 1.27% over the same period with both measures continuing to decline notably since last year.
The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends are experiencing a declining trend into the typically less active summer and fall season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data is starting to capture notable falling prices driven primarily by seasonality.
The 10-city composite index declined 3.56% as compared to November 2010 while the 20-city composite declined 3.67% over the same period.
Topping the list of regional peak decliners was Las Vegas at -61.07%, Phoenix at -55.54%, Miami at -51.06%, Tampa at -47.36% and Detroit at -44.38%.
Additionally, both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -32.87% for the 10-city national index and -32.94% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.
To better visualize today's results use Blytic.com to view the full release.
The following charts (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as compared to each metros respective price peak set between 2005 and 2007 as well as annual and monthly changes.
Additionally, in order to add some historical context to the perspective, I updated my 'then and now' CSI charts that compare our current circumstances to the data seen during 90s housing decline.
To create the following annual and normalized charts I simply aligned the CSI data from the last month of positive year-over-year gains for both the current decline and the 90s housing bust and plotted the data side-by-side (click for larger version).
The 'peak' chart compares the percentage change, comparing monthly CSI values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices.
  
  
More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for November 2011
30 Jan 2012 at 9:18am
 As I demonstrated in prior posts, given their strong correlation, the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic, averaged monthly, can effectively be used as a preview of the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.
The current Radar Logic 25 MSA Composite data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as November 25 and averaged for the month indicates that with slowing summer/fall transactions has come a notable decline of prices (the typical trend) with the national index declining 1.8% since October and falling 7.11% below the level seen in November 2010.
The Radar Logic index will likely be capturing an decline in prices from now until early 2012 as transactions continue to trend down.
Look for tomorrow's S&P/Case-Shiller home price report to reflect this declining trend though to a lesser degree due to its three month rolling-average nature with prices moderately higher.
 
  
Redfin Sweet Digs Los Angeles: Los Angeles real estate blog focusing on hot p...
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Housing Doom
I had some financial problems. When Can I Buy A House?
3 Feb 2012 at 2:07pm
Poor L gets all kinds of real estate related spam, but he graciously sorts through it and sends the more interesting stuff. I did think that the following chart on “When Can I Buy A House”, sent out by an Arizona mortgage broker, might be interesting to some of our readers: If you go to the webpage, there’s info on how long after Chapter 13 as well. Of course, if you aren’t buying a house because you are still waiting for that job to come through (and...
Read this item at Housing Doom...
   
Foreign Cenbank Holdings to February 1, 2012
3 Feb 2012 at 1:11pm
Oh dear, somebody tell Oda’s people to break out the crank-o-sign machine. Looks like we’re going to need a few more back-dated permissions, and it’s not just Kenney running amok this time. Wowsers, hadn’t been following the antics of the Thirteenth District / FRBO (you can say that again ) for a while, but yesterday the amero gap closed to just -4 bips. And you thought Keystone was dead, Igor: bwahaha! Fed’s own MBS holdings grew a meaningless $0.388 billion while...
Read this item at Housing Doom...
 
Crack of Doom: Last Tuesday?
30 Jan 2012 at 1:01am
Anonymous blogger Lexington wants tomorrow to be the last shot. Somewhere, Parker is starting to wonder why he even bothered. Related posts:Twist is off until Tuesday Chelsey B. Sullenberger III should sit really near Obama next Tuesday Crack of Doom: It's Dead, Jim
Related posts:Twist is off until Tuesday
Chelsey B. Sullenberger III should sit really near Obama next Tuesday
Crack of Doom: It's Dead, Jim
Read this item at Housing Doom...
 
Bubble Meter
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI down in November
31 Jan 2012 at 8:32am
The November numbers for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index are out. The 20-city index is down 3.7% year-over-year and down 1.3% month-over-month:
Home prices posted a steep, month-over-month drop in November, falling 1.3%, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city report. Prices fell in 19 of the 20 cities the index covers.
Prices are down 3.7% from a year ago, and off 32.8% since they peaked in the summer of 2006. The index is currently only 0.6% above its March, 2011 low.
"Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall," said David Blitzer, spokesman for S&P.
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Financial Armageddon
Exceptable Jobs Report [sic]
3 Feb 2012 at 3:16pm
Today's jobs report -- really good...except for the fact that:
1. Full-time jobs (that is, the kind that offer benefits and which represent a genuine commitment by employers) only accounted for a fraction of the increase in employment
"Final Nail In Today's NFP Tragicomedy: Record Surge In Part-Time Workers" (Zero Hedge)
It appears the record surge in people not in the labor force is not the only outlier in today's data. For the other one we go to the Household Data Survey (Table 9), and specifically the breakdown between Full Time and Part Time Workers (defined as those "who usually work less than 35 hours per week"). We won't spend too much time on it, as it is self-explanatory. In January, the number of Part Time workers rose by 699K, the most ever, from 27,040K to 27,739K, the third highest number in the history of this series. How about Full time jobs' They went from 113,765 to 113,845. An 80K increase. So the epic January number of 141.6 million employed, which rose by 847K at the headline level: only about 10 % of that was full time jobs: surely an indicator of the resurgent US economy... in which employers can't even afford to give their workers full time employee benefits. We can't wait for Mr. Liesman to explain how this number, too, is unadulterated hogwash, and how it too is explained away to confirm economic strength.
2. Not much has changed for those who've had the hardest time finding employment
"El-Erian Pours Cold Water On Today's Jobs Report" (Business Insider)
PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian told Bloomberg TV that we need to look beyond the headline numbers:
Long-term unemployment, those who have been unemployed for 27-weeks or longer, that is stuck, stubbornly stuck at 5.5 million again. And second, youth unemployment'unemployment among the 16 - 19 year olds, that is stuck again at 23 percent. So, we should welcome the headline numbers, they are really good, but we should not lose sight that we have structural issues that are not being dealt with. And that's going to be the question mark. Is this just a cyclical bounce or can this hand off into a secular bounce which the economy needs'
3. Seasonal and other adjustments probably exaggerated the labor market's underlying strength
"Economists React: Jobs Report 'Positive in Every Way'" (Real Time Economics)
We would nonetheless caution that January results are dominated by the seasonal adjustment process and therefore we would not rush to extrapolate the rates of gain reported today. For instance, the unadjusted change in payrolls in the month was -2,689,000, which translated into the aforementioned +243,000 after seasonal adjustment. So, it only takes a small miss by the seasonal to inflate the reported seasonally adjusted gain. Such an outcome could be caused by significantly warmer/dryer weather than normal (certainly the case in many areas during the month) and/or an under-estimate of job losses by the 'birth/death' adjustment. Although that statistical measure makes a large negative adjustment to the non-seasonally adjusted payroll figure in January (-367,000, or almost 14% of the reported decline in total payrolls), there is no guarantee that it is accurate, and in times of economic distress it could still be understating the 'death' of businesses. 'Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.
[For a bit more discussion on this topic, click here.]
4. Geopolitical, political, and weather-related disruptions (e.g., the Thailand floods) during 2011 likely pushed back some of the hiring that would have taken place earlier in the year
"The Hiring Hare Will Soon Morph Into a Tortoise" (Real Time Economics)
Businesses may have been catching up on their labor needs after they paused mid-year in response to production disruptions from the Japanese disasters and the uncertainty surrounding the debt-ceiling debate in Washington.
Never mind -- if the stock market is happy, that's all that matters. Right'
        
Yet-Another-Non-Sequitur Alert
2 Feb 2012 at 7:38pm
According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the worst is well and truly behind us (via Business Insider):
"The U.S. financial system is stronger and getting stronger...we have shut down or restructured the weakest parts of our system... finally we've been able to dramatically reduce the expected cost of the financial crises to levels unthinkable in 2009...the financial system is much less vulnerable than it was and is much more able to manage a growing economy."
And yet, we have this --
"Treasury May Let Investors Pay to Lend to U.S. Government" (Reuters)
The U.S. government may ask investors to pay for the privilege and safety of holding short-term debt issued by its Treasury Department.
In response to clamor from investors, the Treasury said on Wednesday it was looking closely at allowing negative-yield auctions. This would mean bidders who want the security of U.S. government debt in the face of global insecurity, might have to pay a premium for it.
Doing so would allow the U.S. government to benefit from something that is already occurring on the secondary market, where investors have accepted negative yields in recent months to protect their cash from financial strains.
Remarkably, Wall Street is asking to be able to pay a premium for U.S. debt even after the United States lost its prized AAA rating last year and as the government heads for a fourth straight year with $1 trillion-plus budget deficit.
"It is the unanimous view of the committee that Treasury should modify auction regulations to permit negative rate bidding and awards in Treasury bill auctions as soon as feasible," according to minutes of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, which includes 21 financial institutions that make markets for U.S. government securities.
The European debt crisis and worry about global prospects is fueling investor demand for safe assets like short-term U.S. government debt. Treasury said modifying its auction rules would require overcoming "operational issues" but they were related to accounting rather than to legal questions.
and this --
"REPORT: Prepare For A Giant New Wave Of US Bank Failures" (Business Insider)
Forget Europe ' the weak U.S. recovery puts more than 750 domestic banks at risk of failure, according to a report from Invictus Consulting Group (via Business Wire).
Invictus, which stress tested all FDIC-insured banks, says 758 lenders could collapse in the next three years, forecasting a new wave of borrower defaults in the absence of a strong economic up-tick.
A disaster in Europe would probably make things much worse.
Invictus says the at-risk lenders ' mostly regional banks or subsidiaries of the majors ' won't be able to sustain themselves on current earnings, and will likely fail if they don't merge or raise "significant" amounts of new capital. --
and this --
"Treasury's 2008 Financial Rescue Could Last Until 2017" (Real Time Economics)
The U.S. government's rescue of the financial system could last for five more years as the Treasury Department unwinds its investments in hundreds of banks and other companies propped up in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a government watchdog said Thursday.
The Bush administration launched the financial rescue plan in the autumn of 2008 at the height of the financial crisis. At its launch, Congress authorized spending $700 billion on the bailout known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. The Treasury Department currently estimates that the final cost for TARP will be $68 billion.
As of the end of last year, about $414 billion had been spent through 13 programs, while $278 billion had been repaid and $51 billion was still available to be spent, according to a quarterly report to Congress by the special inspector general for the TARP program. The remaining institutions in the program include 455 banks and thrifts, plus insurer American International Group Inc., General Motors and Ally Financial Inc.
'TARP is not over,' said Christy Romero, the acting TARP special inspector general. 'Some TARP programs last until 2017, and market volatility has slowed Treasury's progress in unwinding its investments.'
The report also found that exiting these investments could be difficult in the coming years, as financial markets remain rocky and many community banks that receive federal aid continue to struggle.
Yep, things sure are looking good for the financial system.
  
Déjà Vu All Over Again?
1 Feb 2012 at 3:52pm
The last time we saw the sort of divergence we have now, where equity markets remain resilient as credit markets falter, was back in the period from mid-2007 until early-2008 -- which, as you'll recall, was not a particularly good time to be bullish on stocks.
Of course, this time may be different -- right'
  
Our So-Called Recovery
31 Jan 2012 at 8:18pm
Three recent articles (further) undermine the notion that we're seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.
The first examines the so-called rebound in growth:
"Dial 911 If This Story Makes Your Eyes Bleed" (New York Post)
In order to get to [the] 2.8 percent growth [reported last Friday,] the Commerce Department used a very unrealistic level of inflation in its calculations.
Let me explain: The government comes up with a figure on how much it thinks the economy grew, or shrunk. Friday's figure was a first estimate for the fourth quarter, so most of the numbers used in the calculation are only guesstimates anyway. (But that's for a different story.)
The government then takes that growth figure, subtracts the rate of inflation and comes up with the real growth it reports in its press release.
So, in other words, if inflation is rising it reduces the rate of actual, after inflation, growth ' which is the figure that Washington reports.
In Friday's number the government used 0.4 percent as the rate of inflation. Zero. Point. Four. Percent.
In which country is inflation that low' Certainly not in America. Absolutely not in the last four months of 2011.
The consumer price index, which is put out by the US Census Bureau, had prices up 3 percent for the year.
And the rate of inflation used in calculating the third-quarter 2011 GDP was 2.6 percent; in the first and second quarters, combined, the rate was 2.5 percent; it was 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.
So how does the Zero-Point-Four-Freakin' percent sound now'
That's how Commerce got to the not-very-inspiring 2.8 percent growth it reported last Friday.
The second weighs in on the so-called fall in unemployment:
"Latest Congressional Budget Outlook For 2012-2022 Released, Says Real Unemployment Rate Is 10%" (Zero Hedge)
The unemployment rate would be even higher than it is now had participation in the labor force not declined as much as it has over the past few years. The rate of participation in the labor force fell from 66 percent in 2007 to an average of 64 percent in the second half of 2011, an unusually large decline over so short a time. About a third of that decline reflects factors other than the downturn, such as the aging of the baby-boom generation. But even with those factors removed, the estimated decline in that rate during the past four years is larger than has been typical of past downturns, even after accounting for the greater severity of this downturn. Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent. By CBO's estimates, the rate of labor force participation will fall to slightly above 63 percent by 2017. The dampening effects of the increase in tax rates in 2013 scheduled under current law and additional retirements by baby boomers are projected to more than offset the strengthening effects of growing demand for labor as the economy recovers further.
And the last discusses the so-called turnaround in the property market:
"No Hope For Recovery As Housing Falls Deeper Down The Rabbit Hole" (Forbes)
Don't expect housing to contribute to the so-called economic recovery any time soon. Home prices continue to drop month-after-month according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index in the face of record low-mortgage interest rates, suggesting all of Bernanke's attempts at reviving what he considers a key sector of the economy have been futile.
Tight lending standards and a record high number of foreclosed properties on bank's balance sheets will continue to push down on prices and hamper any recovery.
The latest Case-Shiller data, which goes up to November 2011, shows both the 10 and 20-city composites falling further into the rabbit hole. The 10 and 20-city indices are down 3.6% and 3.7% respectively over the November 2010 as home prices remain stuck at mid-2003 levels.
Both indices are barely off their lows (10-city 1% above, while 20-city barely 0.6% north of its trough) and are down about 33% from the pre-crisis peak. 'The trend is down and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand,' said index chairman David Blitzer.
Welcome to our so-called recovery.
  
Different...Again?
30 Jan 2012 at 3:51pm
According to USA Today's most recent economic outlook survey, "Economists See Growth Slowing, Recession Risk Falling," the majority of experts are cautiously optimistic:
- The risk of another U.S. recession is falling. The median estimate of USA TODAY's panel call it only a 22% probability in the next 12 months.
- Europe's financial crisis will shave only a quarter of a percentage point from this year's U.S. growth, the economists said.
- More than 90% of the economists think home prices have either already bottomed out or will by the end of this year.
And yet, as John Hussman notes in this week's Hussman Funds' Weekly Market Comment, "Warning: Goat Rodeo," the hard data paints a much less sanguine picture of the risks ahead.
While we typically discourage drawing inferences from any single indicator, it's at least worth noting that with the release of Q4 GDP figures, the year-over-year growth rate of real U.S. GDP remains below 1.6% (denoted by the red line below). A decline in GDP growth to this level has always been associated with recession, usually coincident with that decline, though with a two-quarter lag in two instances (1956 and 2007), and with one post-recession dip in growth during the first quarter of 2003. As it happens, the GDP growth rate dropped below 1.6% in the third quarter of 2011.
Given the strong and rather obvious relationship between the most recent year-over-year rate of GDP growth and the prospect of oncoming recession, it's difficult to understand why Wall Street so completely rejects the likelihood of an economic downturn.
Because this time it's different'
LOL!!
  
Interest Rate Roundup
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